US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve INVERTS As Real Average Hourly Earnings Decline -2.678% YoY (30Y Mortgage Rate Rises To 4.90%)

Wasting away again in Biden/Pelosiville, looking for my lost inexpensive gasoline and food. Some people say that Putin is to blame, but we know its Biden/Pelosi’s fault.

The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve just inverted, generally a precursor to a recession. Called it, nothing but net!

Meanwhile, today’s jobs report shows that Bidenflation is crushing America’s wage growth. While average hourly earnings grew to 5.6% YoY, we are still seeing inflation growing at 7.9% YoY meaning that inflation is reeling hurting the middle class and lower-income households.

The good news is that the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, almost back to the Trump-era unemployment rate of 3.5% prior to the Covid outbreak. And the unemployment rate remains below the CBO’s short-term natural rate of unemployment indicating that the labor market is OVERHEATED.

Today’s jobs report was pretty good, as we would expect from a recovery caused by governments shutting down economies, then reopening them. 431k jobs were added, but less than last month’s jobs added of 678k and less than the forecast 490k.

The number of people NOT in the labor force fell slightly, but it still around 100 million. The number of people holding multiple jobs to overcome Bidenflation rose to 7.5 million.

On the mortgage front, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate rose to 4.90% as the 2-year Treasury rate (yellow) rises and the number of expected Fed rate hikes over the coming year is 9.26%.